Sunday Herald

One reformed double-glazing salesman = from=20 Stoke-on-Trent puts pen to paper and worlds collide. = Newswires begin=20 clattering from Birmingham to Bangkok, and the word of a pop = singer=20 sets in motion a chain reaction that sends corporate kings=20 whispering and stock markets jittering .

This is not a fault: do not adjust your set. The earth = may be=20 beset by a dozen potentially apocalyptic crises, but the = gossip that=20 really set the Western world buzzing this week was the news = that=20 Robbie Williams -- vocalist, entertainer and occasional rock = wildman=20 -- had become the second highest earner in music history. A=20 watershed deal with EMI which reportedly stands to earn the = former=20 Take That member a staggering =A380 million took centre = stage the=20 moment it was leaked, and as the news broke late on Friday = that the=20 performer's long-time songwriter Guy Chambers had = sensationally quit=20 the partnership, whole industries were cast into a fever of = nervous=20 speculation.

Serious-minded readers will doubtless wonder how the = contractual=20 machinations of a skilled but trivial troubadour could = register so=20 prominently on the global agenda, but this isn't just a = story about=20 one pampered pop star. Not only a high-rolling gamble with = corporate=20 futures as the stake, the Williams deal is central to the = battle for=20 the heart and soul of the music industry, and what happens = next=20 could have profound ramifications for the future of popular = culture.

It is a major news moment, yet for all the column inches=20 generated by the star's fiscal coup, very few actual facts = are=20 known. A new contract has been signed, but the fine print, = the=20 precise scale of remuneration and the various motivations = that led=20 to pen meeting dotted line reside in murky waters . If = anything is=20 known for certain, it is only that the deal was virtually=20 inevitable.

'This was a deal that had to be made. The entire music = industry=20 has been watching like hawks, and ultimately EMI had no = choice but=20 to sign Williams whatever the cost,' says Hooman Majd, a New = York=20 consultant who spent over a decade as a senior executive = with Island=20 Records and Polygram, working on a diverse portfolio of = bands from=20 the Cranberries to Pulp. 'You can get away with a lot in = this=20 business, but let your biggest selling act walk away and = you're dead=20 in the water.

Majd points out: 'In the year since Alain Levy took over = as EMI=20 chief executive he has watched Michael Jackson's value = disintegrate=20 and has been forced to dump =A340m on paying off Mariah = Carey's=20 disastrous contract. Williams was all he had left, and with = his=20 investors watching and the competition circling, allowing = the man to=20 go would have been unthinkable.'

In addition to the company's need to retain their = top-level star,=20 as the parties approached the negotiating table EMI were = also grimly=20 conscious of the fact that their sparring partner = represented the=20 label's one clear chance of reaffirming the UK music = machine's stake=20 in the American market.=20

If it was money that had to be paid, there is still some=20 uncertainty of how much is actually involved. Publicly EMI = will not=20 reveal any contractual details, but in private its = executives are=20 stridently dismissing the =A380m price tag quoted across an = array of=20 reputable sources as exaggerated speculation. The artist = himself has=20 not helped, going on record only to state that the deal has = made him=20 rich beyond his wildest dreams, but given that he is a = notorious=20 supermodel dater and tabloid playboy with a history of drug = and=20 alcohol problems who was already valued at around =A320m, we = can only=20 guess how wild those dreams might be.

Whatever the actual total, Williams is not about to = receive a=20 single massive payment . Recording industry contracts are = many=20 layered constructions laden with qualification, and payments = are=20 inevitably linked to a litany of conditions ranging from = album=20 delivery dates to sales figures. The downpayment on the deal = is=20 rumoured to be =A310m, but only an extra-ordinarily = successful run=20 over the next few years would see the star pick up anything = like the=20 reported maximum.

Of course none but the very few knows for certain what is = going=20 on because the contract, which gives EMI a cut of the action = from=20 Williams's merchandising, publishing rights and live = performances,=20 is an extremely unusual one. Labels usually stay well clear = of=20 involving themselves in anything but record sales, and the = fact that=20 they have bought so heavily into the artist's entire range = of=20 activities has left some commentators wondering if there is = more to=20 this than meets the eye. 'This kind of contract is virtually = unheard=20 of, but when you combine the back catalogue, the future = sales and=20 all the ancillary business it certainly adds up to a very = valuable=20 asset,' says Allan Dumbreck, editor of the Music Education = Directory=20 and head lecturer at the newly founded Scottish School of = Music and=20 Recording Technology in Ayr. 'Given that the last year has = seen EMI=20 slash costs, announce 1800 redundancies and only turn back = from a=20 merger with AOL Time Warner after the intervention of EU = monopoly=20 watchdogs, you have to wonder whether their real motivation = here is=20 in making the books look good for a takeover.'

If plumping the turkey up for a Christmas sale was indeed = the=20 object of the exercise, the market appears to have reacted = in the=20 manner intended. Although EMI shares dropped a point in the=20 immediate aftermath of the contract news breaking, by the = time this=20 newspaper went to press they had rallied, lifting a clear = =A33.28=20 above their pre-Robbie level to settle at =A3172.75 a pop.

Yet it is still a massive gamble. EMI sources report that = Williams is a steady earner, generating =A35 million per = album project=20 and improving on that performance with every passing year. = If the=20 rumoured figures are correct, and the contract is indeed for = the=20 four releases reported, then the maths just don't add up. = Even if=20 merchandising income were to double the star's revenues, at = current=20 levels the company stands to take back around half what they = have=20 paid out.

'They are going to have to break him in the States to = make up the=20 difference, there's no question about that,' says Ian Peel, = author=20 of From The Beatles to Biocybernetics. 'EMI cannot possibly = see a=20 return on that kind of money without making a big impact on = the=20 American market and that's no easy thing to do. '

EMI have been stalwart in their defence of the star, = pointing out=20 that while he may not have set the stateside heather alight, = his=20 last album going gold there can hardly be counted as abject = failure.=20 They also dispute the idea that American success is now = essential,=20 claiming that such targets had no bearing on negotiations: = 'We're=20 just glad to have an artist of Robbie's calibre on board,' = said=20 spokeswoman Cathy Cremer. 'Escapology is a fantastic album = and we=20 expect it to do well when released next month, but this is a = long-term relationship and there is no pressure on him to do = anything.'

In the bars around Soho this weekend, however, the buzz = is that=20 EMI is preparing to package Williams as the next Sinatra. = Black=20 music and rock may still rule in American commercial charts, = but=20 many observers believe there remains a huge potential market = for an=20 inoffensive all-rounder to entertain the conservative middle = classes.=20

Cracking a hugely competitive market like America is = easier said=20 than done, and even before the split with Chambers -- long = seen as=20 key to his success -- cast doubt upon the continuity of = Williams's=20 output, the question marks were hovering. I s he capable of=20 withstanding the intense pressure of standing at the centre = of a=20 multi-million dollar strategy? Can he curb his natural = tendency=20 towards cheeky-chappie bum-baring -- and how would a US = audience=20 react if he doesn't?

'There's a hell of a lot of obstacles in his way, but if = I were=20 offered Williams and could be assured that he was prepared = to play=20 the game and work on projecting a less British image, I'd = certainly=20 take him on. He's a bona fide international star and is more = than=20 capable of pulling it off,' says Majd.

The singer's ability to woo the American marketplace = aside, there=20 are many who believe that his landmark deal owes more to = shifts in=20 the economics of music than particular faith in his art. I n = response to falling sales the industry has moved towards a=20 profit-maximising model of operations that makes the = commoditisation=20 of superstars an inevitability.

These are difficult times for the music industry, and it = is only=20 natural that it should be moving to protect the investments = it has=20 made, banking on the exploitation of talent to carry the = major=20 players through. With available funds ploughed into shoring = up=20 established stars, however, many analysts are left wondering = where=20 the next generation of popular musicians is going to come = from.

It is possible that the real significance of this week's = dealings=20 is that they herald a fracturing in the music business as we = know=20 it. Majd reports that most executives are now solely = interested in=20 acts they are certain will not damage the balance sheet, and = are too=20 worried for their jobs to take a risk on untried performers. = A few=20 miracle leaps to stardom still happen, but the path for = hopefuls=20 working their ticket is getting steeper and more = treacherous.

When the emerging rap and hip-hop movements in urban = America=20 first gathered pace, a host of pirate radio stations, = websites and=20 MP3-only underground labels sprang into existence . Given = the=20 mainstream media's focus on output from the major players, = they saw=20 it as the only available way to find an audience. Now, with = the=20 traditional pop career ladder crumbling, other genres are = following=20 their lead.

'If Robbie Williams's deal has any significance, it is to = mark=20 the final separation of the music business and the beginning = of a=20 process that will see packaged entertainment dominating the = major=20 media and a completely separate progressive music industry = operating=20 through a digital underground,' says Peel. 'The suspicion = that=20 things were heading that way has been around for a long = time. Now, I=20 fear, it has become inevitable.'

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